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Saturday, July 18, 2015

EUR/USD Forecast for July 20 – 24, 2015.

This EURUSD pair heads downwards mainly because the Greek crisis especially after mid June. Since the dark clouds are still there, the health of the Euro is on the line.

These are the main events that will affect the EUR/USD pair.

1. German PPI – 20.07.2015 at 6.00 GMT
            Consumer prices depend on Producer Prices, as 0% in May, and no change is expected in June.
2. Current Account - 20.07.2015 at 8.00 GMT
            Mainly because of the German exports, euro zone keeps a large surplus. In April, the amount was 22.3 billion, and is expected to rise up to 23.1 bn.

3. Spanish Unemployment Rate - 21.07.2015 at 7.00 GMT
            Sitting along with the Greece’s level, 23.8% reported in the first quarter, a slight drop to around 22.5% is expected.

4. Consumer Confidence - 23.07.2015 at 14.00 GMT
            The Eurostat’s official figure was at -6 points in May, and expected to be unchanged.

5. Flash PMIs - 24.07.2015 at 8.00 GMT (whole Euro Zone)
            Manufacturing sector is expected to be unchanged at 52.5, and a slight drop is expected in services sector, from 54.4 to 54.2

Technical levels for EUR/USD

1.1200 - Strong Resistance
1.1050 - Strong Resistance
1.0910 - Weak Resistance
1.0865 - Weak Resistance
1.0815 - Weak Support
1.0760 - Strong Support
1.0715 - Weak Support
1.0660 - Strong Support
1.0615 - Strong Support
1.0550 - Weak Support
1.0462 - Very Strong Support (Lowest in 12 years)

We remain bearish on Euro / Dollar.

Mainly the Greece’s situation and the European Central Bank is taking the easy measures of QE.


Saturday, May 16, 2015

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Monday, April 15, 2013

EUR/USD Forecast April 15-19

The euro climbed for a second repeated week. As EUR/USD moved toward significant resistance, could the Euro bounce back? Last week, Euro zone statistics continued to look weak but German readings were climbed.
Keep a close look on these events :
  1. Italian Trade Balance: 16-04-’13  -  9:00.
  2.  German ZEW Economic Sentiment: 16-04-’13  -  10:00.
  3. Inflation data: 16-04-’13  -  10:00.
  4. Mario Draghi speaks: 16-04-’13  -  14:00.
  5. G20 Meetings: 18 & 19 -04-’13 
  6. German PPI: 19-04-’13  -  7:00.
  7. Current Account: 19-04-’13  -  9:00.
  8. IMF Meetings: 19 & 20-04-’13 
All times are in GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis and EUR/USD Forecast
The EUR/USD started the week trading between the 1.2960 and 1.30 lines. It then climbed up steadily, finally meeting resistance at 1.3140 before moving back to close at 1.3111.

Technical lines from top to bottom:
1.3400 – Strong Resistance
1.3350 – weak Resistance
1.3290 – weak Resistance
1.3255 – Strong Resistance
1.3170 – Strong Resistance
1.3000 – Strong Support
1.2960 – Strong Support
1.2880 – weak Support
1.2805 – weak Support
1.2750 – Strong Support

We remain neutral on EUR/USD at least shot term. The economic indicators are not that good in the eurozone to remain a long term bullish pattern.

 FX Empire’s technical forecast :



Monday, April 8, 2013

EUR/USD Forecast for 08th to 12th April, 2013

Past week, the ECB left interest rates untouched as estimated. The roller coaster came in the press conference, where Draghi hinted on a rate cut, probably within the next two months, but also provided a solid commitment to the Euro project. The European Central Bank still believes the Euro zone will strengthen this year, but will keep a close eye on the economy, to see if conditions keep on to get worse. In light of a monetary attack from Japan and no near end in sight to QE in the US after the reduced Non-Farm Payrolls report, the euro is positively supported.

Keep a close look on these events :
  1. Sentix Investor Confidence: 08-04-’13 - 9:30.  
  2. German Industrial Production : 08-04-’13 - 11:00.
  3. German Trade Balance: 09-04-’13 -  7:00.
  4. French Gov Budget Balance: 09-04-’13 -  7:45.
  5. French Industrial Production: 10-04-’13 - 7:45.
  6. Italian Industrial Production: 10-04-’13 - 9:00.  
  7. French CPI: 11-04-’13 - 6:30.
  8. ECB Monthly Bulletin: 11-04-’13 - 9:00.
  9. German WPI: 12-04-’13 - 7:00.
  10. Industrial Production: 12-04-’13 – 10:00.
  11. Eurogroup Meetings: 12-04-’13
  12. ECOFIN Meetings: 13-04-’13
*All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Levels

Euro/dollar was trading in a range, capped by the 1.2880 line. Things changed on Thursday, as the pair dipped just below support at 1.2750, only to swing higher. The 1.2960 line capped Euro/Dollar in the beginning, but in the end it rose towards 1.3050 before closing just below 1.3000.

Technical lines from top to bottom:
1.3400 – Strong Resistance
1.3350 – weak Resistance
1.3290 – weak Resistance
1.3255 – Strong Resistance
1.3170 – Strong Resistance
1.3130 – Strong Resistance
1.3100 – weak Resistance
1.3050 – weak Resistance
1.2880 – weak Support
1.2805 – weak Support
1.2750 – Strong Support
1.2700 – weak Support
1.2660 – Strong Support
1.2624 – Strong Support

We are neutral on Euro/Dollar

FX Empire’s technical forecast : ( EUR/USD Forecast )


Sunday, December 16, 2012

EUR/USD Forecast for 17th to 21st December, 2012

The EURO had an outstanding week, eyeing levels last seen in the month of May. The USD was damaged by the announcement of QE4 in the US. Greece’s situation certainly helped EURO, but Germany shows some gloomy figures.
  1. Trade Balance : 17th Dec., 10:00 GMT. The euro zone seasonally adjusted trade surplus widened to 11.3 billion Euros, above analyst’s forecast for 9.5 billion Euros surplus. Exports dropped 1.1% on September from 3.3% gain in August while imports declined by 2.7% from 2.3% registered in August.
  1. German Ifo Business Climate : 19th Dec., 9:00 GMT. This index climbed in November to 101.4, from 100 in October, opposing to predictions of more decline in sentiment. The reading may have been influenced by helpful data from the US and China. A climb to 101.9 is estimated now.
  1. Current Account : 19th Dec., 9:00 GMT. The surplus of the eurozone’s current account plunged to 0.8 billion euros in September following 10.9 billion euros the August. The surplus over the 12 months to September, exposed a surplus of 77.8 billion, compared with a shortfall of 7.6 billion in the same period last year. Current account surplus is projected to rise to 5.8 billion.
  1. German Producer Price Index : 20th Dec., 7:00 GMT. Producer Price Index remained unmoved in October opposing to predictions of a 0.1% gain, following a 0.3% increase in the earlier month. The 12 month decline in Producer Price Index was not reflected in the core PPI; signifying output prices remain constrained by weak domestic demand. The forecast is a  decline of 0.1%.
  1. NBB Business Climate – Belgium : 20th Dec., 14:00 GMT. Confidence among Belgian business leaders has grown in November to -13.4 from -13.5 in the previous month. Economists forecasted an un-changed reading. Additional decline to -14.3 is forecasted.
  1. Eurozone - Consumer Confidence : 20th Dec., 15:00 GMT. Euro zone consumer confidence fallen in last month to -27 following -25.7 in October caused by the debt crisis. Even under severe cuts, a raise to -26 is projected now.
  1. GfK Consumer Climate – Germany : 21st Dec., 7:00 GMT. This indicator dropped in November to 5.9 from 6.1 in October, upon the current debt crisis in the Union. Even with this decline, the survey shows Germans do not fear recession. Household sentiment remains to be acceptable and private expenditure is continuing to be the main strength in the German economy. No change is estimated.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.3600 – Strong Resistance
1.3480 – Strong Resistance
1.3400 – Strong Resistance
1.3290 – Strong Resistance
1.3170 – Strong Resistance ( Keep an eye for break or bounce )
1.3130 – Weak Resistance                  
1.3000 – Strong Support         
1.2880 – Strong Support         
1.2750 – Strong Support                                 
1.2690 – Strong Support

We will stay bullish EUR/USD this week.