A Strategy for trade the Non-Farm Payroll Report

The Non-Farm Payroll report normally affects all major currency pairs, but two of the favorites among traders are EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Because the fx market is open 24 hours a day, all traders have the capability to trade the news event. 

The method behind this strategy is to wait for the market to process the information's significance. After the early swings have occurred, and after market participants have had a little time to react on what the number means, they will enter a trade in the trend of the dominating momentum. They wait for a signal that indicates the market may have chosen a direction to take rates. This avoids getting in too early and decreases the probability of being whipsawed out of the market before the market has chosen a direction.

The Rules
The strategy can be traded off of five- or 15-minute charts. For the rules and examples a 15-minute chart will be used, although the same rules apply to a five-minute chart. Signals may appear on different time frames, so stick with one or the other.

Nothing is done during the first bar after the NFP report (8:30 to 8:45 a.m. in the case of the 15-minute chart).

The bar created at 8:30 to 8:45 will be wide ranging. Traders wait for an inside bar to occur after this initial bar (it does not need to be the very next bar). In other words, they are waiting for the most recent bar's range to be completely inside the previous bar's range.

This inside bar's high and low rate sets up our potential trade triggers. When a subsequent bar closes above or below the inside bar, market participants take a trade in the direction of the breakout. They can also enter a trade as soon as the bar moves past the high or low without waiting for the bar to close. Whichever method you choose, stick to it.

Place a 30-pip stop on the trade you entered.

Make up to a maximum of two trades. If both get stopped out, don't re-enter. The inside bar's high and low are used again for a second trade if needed.

The target is a time target. Generally, most of the move occurs within four hours. Thus, traders exit four hours after their entry time. A trailing stop is an alternative if traders wish to stay in the trade.

Figure 1 shows a 15 minute chart for the GBP/USD set in GMT format, the vertical line marks the 8:30 a.m. EST (1:30 p.m. GMT) release of the NFP report. As you can see from the chart, there are three bars, or 45 minutes, of back-and-forth action following the release. During this time, traders do not trade until they see an inside bar. The inside bar has a square around it on the chart. This bar's price range is fully contained by the previous bar. Traders will enter when a bar closes higher or lower than the inside bar. The next bar's close is circled, as that is their entry; it closed above the inside bar's high. Their stop is 30 pips below the entry price, which is marked by a solid black horizontal bar.

Because their entry occurred at approximately at 9:45 a.m. EST (2:45 p.m. GMT), they will close out their position four hours later. By entering the trade at 1.4670 and exiting four hours later at 1.4820, 150 pips were captured while risking only 30 pips. However, it should be noted that not every trade will be this profitable. 

Strategy Pitfall
While this strategy can be very profitable, it does have some pitfalls to be aware of. For one, the market may move in one direction aggressively and thus may be beginning to fade by the time we get an inside bar signal. In other words, if a strong move occurs prior to the inside bar, it is possible a move could exhaust itself before we get a signal. It is also important to note that in high volatility times, even after waiting for a pattern setup, rates can reverse quickly. This is why it very important to have a stop in place.

Summary
The logic behind this strategy of trading the NFP report is based on waiting for a small consolidation, the inside bar, after the initial volatility of the report has subsided and the market is choosing which direction it will go. By controlling risk with a moderate stop we are poised to make a potentially large profit from a huge move that almost always occurs each time the NFP is released.