FOREX CRUNCH :
EUR / USD was under pressure before the holidays. The upcoming week,
between Christmas and New Years Eve, is very light in terms of events and
volume. Here is an outlook for the upcoming events, and an updated technical
analysis for EUR/USD.The ECB weighed in with its enormous loans to the banks: more than 500 Euro-zone banks took loans that reached around 490 billion euros. The confidence from this large operation was short-term. Peripheral bonds cannot actually calm down without direct buying from the ECB.
German
CPI
Thursday. In the past four months, prices have barely moved in Europe’s largest economy. After no change whatsoever in the past two months, a rise of 0.8% is estimated now. Note that the each German state publishes its CPI estimation at a different hour during the day.
Thursday. In the past four months, prices have barely moved in Europe’s largest economy. After no change whatsoever in the past two months, a rise of 0.8% is estimated now. Note that the each German state publishes its CPI estimation at a different hour during the day.
M3
Money Supply
Thursday, 9:00. After jumping to a higher pace of 3.1% before two months, the growth of money in circulation eased once again to 2.6%. Further drop is expected for November, to 2.5%.
Thursday, 9:00. After jumping to a higher pace of 3.1% before two months, the growth of money in circulation eased once again to 2.6%. Further drop is expected for November, to 2.5%.
Private
Loans
Thursday, 9:00. More loans represent more economic movement. The pace of fresh loans has ticked up last month and reached 2.7%, after publishing 2.5% beforehand. A climb to 2.8% is expected now.
Thursday, 9:00. More loans represent more economic movement. The pace of fresh loans has ticked up last month and reached 2.7%, after publishing 2.5% beforehand. A climb to 2.8% is expected now.
(All
times are GMT)
EUR / USD Technical Analysis
Euro/dollar traded in a fairly narrow range throughout the week. A break above 1.3145 wasn’t complete and the pair fell, closing at 1.3046, nearly unchanged from last week.
Downtrend channel
A sharp and widening downtrend channel is visible on the graph, and is stronger now subsequent to downtrend support provided support throughout the downfall. Downtrend resistance begins at the end of October and has been widened to accommodate to the changes. Downtrend support was formed afterward on but is more distinct – it wasn’t violated.
Remain neutral on EUR/USD
The great LTRO operation by the ECB prevented an immediate tragedy for the European banks but didn’t solve the sovereign debt problem. This indirect QE will likely buy time during the holiday week. In the long run, it’s a lose lose situation for the euro.
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1 Comments
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