Tips and News about Forex Trading for SRI LANKANS

EUR/USD Forecast - 06.02.2012 to 10.02.2012

2012-02-05T10:37:00.000-08:00

EUR USD had a ‘sideways’ week upon the uncertainties of Greek debt crisis and talks about US QE3. We will get the results this week and it’s not a good idea to forecast EUR/USD without knowing the results of these two major facts. We will not project this week’s behavior of the pair. Here are our technical levels.

Our Technical Levels are as follows :

1.3800 – Strong Resistance

1.3700 – Strong Resistance

1.3615 – Strong Resistance

1.3550 – Strong Resistance

1.3450 – Strong Resistance

1.3330 – Weak Resistance

1.3280 – Strong Resistance

1.3212 – Strong Resistance

1.3145 – Close of last week

1.3100 – Weak Support

1.3060 – Strong Support

1.3023 – Weak Support

1.2945 – Strong Support

1.2873 – Strong Support

1.2660 – Strong Support

1.2623 – Strong Support

1.2587 – Strong Support

We will be neutral for the EUR/USD

Greece and Portugal are pulling Euro lower,while the chance of QE3 sinks the Greenback. We will be neutral and see whatdevelops in the coming week.

EUR/USD Forecast - 01.30.2012 to 02.03.2012

2012-01-29T10:26:00.000-08:00

EURUSD had another excellent week, gaining over 350 pips almoststraight upwards. The single currency was helped by new hopes from Greece and a weaker USD. The EUeconomic summit starts an eventful upcoming week. Here is our projection forthe week, in a technical point of view.

Here are our levels of supports and resistances.

1.3821 – Strong Resistance

1.3640 – Strong Resistance

1.3400 – Weak Resistance

1.3340 – Weak Resistance

1.3305 – Strong Resistance

1.3218 – Close of last week

1.3177 – Weak Support

1.3100 – Weak Support

1.3080 – Strong Support

1.2949 – Strong Support

1.2853 – Strong Support

1.2631 – Strong Support

We remain Bullish on EUR/USD

Although they say the Greek crisis is far from over, Europe is not only Greece. And the so called ‘safeheaven’ has shaken last week. Since the economic indicators to be released thisweek are projected in favors of Euro, we remain bullish for the pair for thisweek.

Trade AUD/USD now !

EURUSD Forecast - January 23-27, 2012

2012-01-22T10:53:00.000-08:00

EUR / USD had a very healthy week (after a long time, I mightadd), gaining 300 pips at the close. Time will tell if this is a new trend orjust a correction. We’ll have a look at the new events and a brief technical analysis.

ConsumerConfidence: 23.01.2012, 15:00.This official Euro-stat survey has been negative, showing negativity for a longtime. It is estimated to indicate further down.

FlashPMI: 24.01.2012. Starts in France- 8:00, Germany- 8:30 and ends with the all-Europeaninformation at 9:00. Purchasingmanagers’ indices indicates growth, and are divided into manufacturing andservices sectors. German and French service sector records, all the rest are lowerthan 50 points, pointing to reduction. The statistics are estimated to remain equalto last month, showing a stressed services sector and a struggling manufacturingsector. All the indicators are estimated slight improvement.

IndustrialNew Orders: 24.01.2012, 10:00.New orders with manufacturers dissatisfied in the past two months, and fellshort of expectations. After the smaller-than-expected rise of 1.8% last month,a drop of 2.1% is predicted now.

NBBBusiness Climate: 24.01.2012, 15:00.This figure climbed up last month to -10.6 points. The negative figure symbolizesweakening conditions. Another slight enhancement is likely, but the figure willprobable remain negative.

GermanIfo Business Climate: 25.01.2012, 9:00.Signs of stabilization have been seen here, with the score increasing for twomonths in a row. Another rise is expected from 107.2 to 107.7 points.

MarioDraghi talks: 25.01.2012, 13:15.The head of the ECB has had a positive impact on markets lately. This was seenin his encouraging message in the latest rate decision press conference, andwith his announcement of seeing ‘signs of stabilization’ in the system. In aspeech at Davos, it will be exciting to see what Draghi says.

German GfKConsumer Climate: 26.01.2012, 7:00.This analysis of 2000 consumers was very stable recently. Germanyis not severely impacted by the debt crisis. The figure of 5.6 points seen inthe past two months will possibly remain the same.

GermanImport Prices: 27.01.2012, 7:00.German economy has seen fluctuations in currency prices with a see-saw like performance.After last month’s climb of 0.4%, a further climb of 0.3% is expected now.

M3Money Supply: 27.01.2012, 9:00.Expansion in the quantity of money in exchange moves prices and economies.After disappointing with a fall to 2%, a climb back to 2.3% is projected forDecember.

* All times are GMT

EUR / USD Technical Analysis

Last week :
Opened with a 50 pips gap down, at 1.2632 and tested 1.2620 level.
Dropped to 1.2625 immediately and then climbed, breach resistance at 1.2875
Climbed to 1.2985 on Friday and Closed at 1.2932

Technical levels for the pair, AUD / USD.
1.3280 - Strong Resistance
1.3145 - Strong Resistance
1.3074 - Strong Resistance
1.2985 - Resistance (Reached last week)
1.2874 - Strong Support
1.2760 - Weak Support
1.2660 - Weak Support
1.2623 - Weak Support
1.2587 - Strong Support

Downtrend channel broken

EUR USD is trading in a parallel, but wide channel. Downtrend resistance ismore important than downtrend support, yet its fairly new. It was just broken,and needs to be confirmed. Downtrend support begins in October, but is far fromthe pair at the moment.

After talks about the Greek haircut shattered last week, they started againand it looks like they managed a deal. Further more, Spain’sauctions retreated from the danger zone and helped the single currency.

Slightly Bullish on EUR/USD
Greece seemsto have a breath with its debt deal, although it hurts banks. And thesuccessful Spanish auctions might open eyes of Italy.The debt crisis is not over yet, but we would like to put our money on Euro forthis week.

EUR/USD Forecast for January 16 – 20, 2012

2012-01-15T10:01:00.000-08:00

EUR/USD had another up and down week which ended in a new 16month low. The forthcoming week features the significant ZEW survey andinflation statistics plus other events. Here’s an outlook for the approachingevents, and an updated technical analysis for the pair.

At the beginning, things went well for the euro – the single currencyenjoyed Draghi’s confidence concerning the accomplishment of the LTRO operation.The aversion of a credit crunch is far from certain, after Friday’sproceedings. Francelost its wonderful AAA rating, collectively with other euro-zone countries.Further more, Greeceis on the edge of default after the talks regarding a haircut broke down. Willthe ECB substitute the private sector and take a hit on Greek bonds? Greekbanks are in bad shape than anticipated. Together with the collapse of GreekPSI talks, the Greek troubles are not priced in.

GermanWPI: Publication time unknown at the moment. Wholesale PriceIndex in Europe’s #1 economy has seen a shocking jump inprices last month, 0.7 percent. No change is likely now.

GermanZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00.This is one of Europe’s most significant surveys. After9 successive drops, this 350 strong survey finally became stable, although atlow ground. The score of -53.8 reflects deep negativity and low prospect forthe economy. A fairly similar score is anticipated now. The less-importanteuro-wide figure will probable remain around -54.1 points seen last month.

CPI:Tuesday, 10:00. After a few stubbornmonths at 3%, the CPI dropped to 2.8% (yearly) in the preliminary publication.This will likely be established now. Core CPI will probably tick down from1.6%. Note that the ECB pays less concentration to inflation now, and focuseson growth and the debt crisis.

CurrentAccount: Thursday, 9:00. Europe’swide measure of the balance of goods, services, cash, etc. jumped to a deficitof 7.5 billion euros last time. A lesser deficit is expected now.

ECBMonthly Bulletin: Thursday, 9:00.One week after the market moving rate conclusion, we will get to see the informationupon which policymakers were making their decisions. This will shed light onhow the central banks see the economy.

GermanPPI: Friday, 7:00. Producerprices in Germanyhave stabilized and rose by very small numbers of late. No change is expectedafter last month’s rise of 0.1%.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD began the week with a drop down to 1.2660. It then traded betweenthis line and the 1.2873 cap before falling as low as 1.2623 but closed abovethe 1.2660 line.

Technical lines from top to bottom:
1.3212 held the pair from falling andswitched to resistance later on. Very important resistance is at 1.3145which was the lowest point recorded in October 2011, was only broken for ashort time from the other side.
1.3085 was the top border of a very narrow range that characterized the pairtowards the end of 2011. It also provided support back in December 2010 and hada pivotal role. The round number of 1.30 is psychologically important and alsoworked as some support. After the breakdown, it was shattered and is now weak.

The relatively new low of 1.2945 is still important, and now as clearresistance. 1.2873 is the previous 2011 low set in January, and still providesresistance. This was seen over and over again.
1.2760 is a pivotal line in the middle of a recent range. It providedsupport early in the year. 1.2660 was a double bottom during January and themove below this line is not confirmed yet. 1.2623 is the current 2012 low,but only has a minor role now.

A more important line is 1.2587, the trough of August 2010. This line willbe closely watched on any move downwards. A break below this line will send thepair to levels last seen 18 months ago.
Even lower, 1.2520 is another minor support line, before the round number of1.24, which was of importance a long time ago.

1.2330 is also an ancient pivotal line, that now works as support. The lastimportant line for now is 1.2144.

Downtrend channel
The pair can be seen as trading in a parallel, yet wide channel. Downtrendresistance is more significant than downtrend support, even thought it datesback only to December. Downtrend support starts in October, but is far from thepair at the moment.

Remain bearish on EUR/USD
The debt crisis has certainly worsened now. The breakup of talks between thebanks and Greecepaves the road for a Greek default, and it might turn ugly. Also the downgradeof France and Austriahas severe consequences on the whole bailout concept, as the EFSF bailout fundwill likely see a downgrade.
The ECB managed to buy time with the banks through the LTRO, but will haveto step up its efforts: either by taking a hit on its Greek bonds, or by buyingmore peripheral bonds to help stabilize the system. Either way, this is a loselose situation for the euro, that is not fully priced in.

EUR/USD Forecast for January 09 – 13, 2012

2012-01-08T17:40:00.000-08:00

EURUSD dropped sharply as uncertainties around banks andsovereigns strengthen in the euro year. The highlight of this week is the ratedecision by the ECB. Here is an outlook for the forthcoming events, and atechnical analysis for Eurodollar.

Troubles in Unicredit, gossips about issues at Deutsche Bank and theexpectation for a downgrade of Franceall weigh on the euro, in addition to weak economic statistics from all overthe continent. Mean while, the UScontinues seeing rise in jobs and a fall in unemployment. The IMF has suspicionsabout Greece’s capabilityto avoid default, and a German politician talks about a need for a biggerhaircut. This doesn’t promise well for the euro.

German Trade Balance: Monday, 7:00. Germanyusually enjoys a high excess in its balance of trade. After dipping surprisinglyfrom 15.1 to 12.6 billion, Germany’strade balance is estimated to remain unaffected this time, in the descriptionfor November.

Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. This survey of analysts and investors isin negative region for 5 months already, plunging deeper each month. The samelevel of distrust is expected to continue nearly unchanged, with the numberlikely to tick up from -24 to -23.5 points.

German Industrial Production: Monday, 11:00. The fresh report about a sharp dive infactory orders lowers expectations for the country’s industrial production.After increasing by 0.8% last month, a decrease of 0.4% is projected now.

French Industrial Production: Tuesday, 7:45. The zone’s second major economy saw nochange last month. A modest increase of 0.1% is expected now.

Final GDP: Wednesday, 9:00. According to the initial release, the euro-zone growsby 0.2% in the third quarter of 2011. The final figure will almost certainly verifythis. The fourth quarter will likely show contraction.

French CPI: Thursday, 6:30. Consumer prices most likely rose for the secondmonth in a row. December’s figure is expected to show a rise of 0.2%, adownwards alteration from the first release, 0.3%.

German Final CPI: Thursday, 7:00. According to the earlier release, pricesjumped by 0.7% after a few months of almost no changes. This will likely beconfirmed now.

Industrial Production: Thursday, 10:00. This figure is published after Germanyand Francepublished their respective. However, the publication has a considerable impacton the euro.

Rate decision: Thursday, 12.45, pressconference at 13.30. After two consecutive rate cuts, Mario Draghi is expectedto oversee his initial judgment not to raise the rates. At 1%, the Minimum BidRate is back to the low stage seen after the financial crisis. Another cut is preferredby some members, despite inflation standing beyond target, yet this will possiblywait. There is some possibility that the ECB will declare new measures to aidthe very troubled banks, adding to the 3 year unlimited and economical loans previouslyannounced. The earlier operation already saw a massive €489 billion tapping, butit didn’t help the euro.

Trade Balance: Friday, 10:00. The entire euro-zone saw two straight months oftrade surpluses. This will possibly continue now, with a surplus of 0.7billion, less than last time.

* All times are in GMT

EURUSD Technical Analysis
Euro/Dollar started the year with a nice climb but faced resistance at the1.3060. It was all downward from there. After breaking 1.2945, this levelbecame resistance and the pair dipped beneath 1.27 to close at 1.2710.

Technical lines for EUR/USD from top to bottom:

The level of 1.3380 is a minor pivotal line now once again. 1.3280 was thebottom in December and is important resistance.
Another line of concern is 1.3212 which held the eurusd from falling and transformedto resistance later on. A key resistance is at 1.3145 which was the lowestpoint seen in October was only broken for a short time from the other side.
1.3085 was the top boundary of a very narrow range that characterized thepair towards the end of the year 2011. It also provided support in December2010 and had a pivotal character.
The 1.3000 is psychologically important and also worked as some support.After the breakdown, it was shattered. The fairly new low of 1.2945 is still vitaland now as clear resistance.
1.2873 is the earlier 2011 low set in January, and still offer resistance.1.2734 worked as support in 2010 and is the subsequent line below. It wasbroken late in the week, but already managed to provide resistance.
1.2640, is the next level of support, after providing support during thefall of 2010. A more vital line is 1.2587, the trough of August 2010. This linewill be watched closely.
Even lower, 1.2520 is another slight support, before the round number of1.2400, which was of importance in the past.
1.2330 is also an antique pivotal line and it now works as support. The lastsignificant line for the week is 1.2144.

Downtrend channel
The downtrend channel we talked about last week can be seen widening,and is stronger now after downtrend resistance stopped a recovery effort.Downtrend resistance begins at October and has been widened to provideaccommodation to the changes.

Still Remain bearish on Euro / Dollar
After two weeks of falls and severe short positioning, the euro may perhapslook a bit oversold. However, all the facts points lower. The ECB’s actions arenot supporting the euro at this point. Greeceis nearer than ever to default, with Prime Minister Papademos talking about it,and a haircut is too far and not sufficient. Italy’syields are also high and the banks are too in danger.
S&P admits that its actions regarding Franceare inappropriate, but the threatening French downgrade certainly weighs on theEuro as well.

EUR/USD Forecast for January 02 – 06, 2012

2012-01-03T11:44:00.000-08:00

fx crunch
EUR/USD capped in a narrow range in the last week of 2011 butin the end extended its losses for 2011. The first week of 2012 is filled witheconomic indicators as market contestants return from their holidays. Here isan outlook for the events pending, and an updated technical analysis for Euro /Dollar.
Italy hadanother dreadful bond auction. It’s not that yields hopped, but if they continueat current levels, the euro-zone’s third major country will find itself in adebt trap that might be able to bring the whole system down. The currency pairended 2011, over 400 pips lesser.

FinalManufacturing PMI: Monday, 9:00.According to the early publication, the manufacturing sector is toning at aslower speed than earlier, with the PMI at 46.9 points. This will probable beconfirmed now, and it replicates a 5th successive month of narrowing.

GermanUnemployment Change: Tuesday, 8:55.After one month of a climb in unemployment, the number fallen again, showingthe power of the German economy. A smaller fall than last month’s 20,000 is estimatednow – 9,000.

FrenchConsumer Spending: Wednesday, 7:45.The euro-zone’s second largest economy has practiced no increase in consumerspending last month, after very small changes earlier. An increase is expectednow, of 0.5%.

FinalServices PMI: Wednesday, 9:00.The services sector is contracting at a slower pace than the manufacturing sector.The primary score for December stood on 48.3 points. The figure is predicted tobe confirmed, showing a 4th consecutive month of contraction in services sector.

CPIFlash Estimate: Wednesday, 10:00.In the past three months, the inflation level stood on 3%. This was not enoughfor the central bank to cut interest rates. Inflation is expected to dropalready now, but remain above the 2.00% target. 2.80% is the consensus.

GermanRetail Sales: Europe’s greatest economy hasseen a miniature drop in the volume of sales last month. A return to expansionis possible now, but this rise will likely be small, +0.3%.

IndustrialNew Orders: Thursday, 10:00.The total of new orders in the manufacturing sector dropped sharply last time:6.2%. This was very disappointing. A rise of 2.6% is the forecast now, in this significantfigure.

PPI:Thursday, 10:00. Producer prices aremoving little by little in current months. Last month saw a small rise of 0.1%,and a parallel rise is likely now.

RetailSales: Friday, 10:00. This vitalconsumer indicator improved from a drop two months ago and managed to rise by0.3%. With a decelerate in many countries, a drop of 0.2% is expected now.

UnemploymentRate: Friday, 10:00. After severalmonths without changes, the last three months saw a steady rise in theunemployment rate, and this is quite disturbing. No change is expected fromlast month’s 10.3% rate.

GermanFactory Orders: Friday, 11:00.This is an extremely volatile indicator. After a plunge of 4.6% two months ago,a leap of 5.2% was recorded last month. A rise of 1.5% is expected now. Despitethe high volatility, the indicator has a strong impact on the common currency.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD traded in a very thin range at the start of the week, around the1.3060 line. It then took a drop and even dipped below the previous YTD low andreached 1.2858. It ends 2011 on a low note.

Technical levels:
1.3550 provided support early in September and then turned into resistanceafter the fall. It proved it can act as good resistance as well, as seen afterthe Non-Farm Payrolls. 1.3480 was able to stop an effort to rise in December.It as well had a bi-directional function in September.
The 1.3420 level is weaker now however still important. When this bottom edgeof the range was broken, it instantly switched to resistance. 1.3380is the next line. It is a minor pivotal line now once again. 1.3280 was thebottom in December and is key resistance.
Another line of consideration is 1.3212 which held the pair from decliningand toggled to resistance afterward. Very vital resistance is at 1.3145which was the lowest position seen in the current round of the crisis and wasonly broken for a short time from the other side.
1.3085 was the top boundary of a very narrow range that described the pairtowards the end of 2011. It also offered support in December 2010.
The round number of 1.3000 is psychologically significant and also worked asa level of support. After the collapse, it was shattered. The new low of 1.2945is still essential as a pivotal line after the downwards move.
1.2873 is the earlier 2011 low set in January, and still provides toughsupport. The break was only momentary. 1.2734 worked as support in the summerof 2010 and is the subsequent line below.
1.2640, is a weaker level of support, after working as such through the fallof 2010. The last is 1.2587, the trough of August 2010.

Downtrend channel
A sharp and broadening downtrend channel can be visible on the graph,and is stronger now after downtrend support offered support during the collapse.Downtrend resistance started at the end of October and has been widenedto provide accommodation to the changes. Downtrend support was producedlater on but is more distinct – it wasn’t violated.

Remain bearish on Euro / Dollar
As the New Year starts and all market contributors get back to their desks,the decline in Europe, high funding costs of Italyand no clarification to the debt crisis all point to lower ground. In the United States, things are looking a little better.

TRADE AUD/USD NOW

EUR/USD Forecast December 26-30

2011-12-25T10:40:00.000-08:00

FOREX CRUNCH :

EUR / USD was under pressure before the holidays. The upcoming week,between Christmas and New Years Eve, is very light in terms of events andvolume. Here is an outlook for the upcoming events, and an updated technicalanalysis for EUR/USD.

The ECB weighed in with its enormous loans to the banks: more than 500Euro-zone banks took loans that reached around 490 billion euros. Theconfidence from this large operation was short-term. Peripheral bonds cannotactually calm down without direct buying from the ECB.

GermanCPI
Thursday. In the past four months, prices have barely moved in Europe’slargest economy. After no change whatsoever in the past two months, a rise of0.8% is estimated now. Note that the each German state publishes its CPIestimation at a different hour during the day.

M3Money Supply
Thursday, 9:00. After jumping to ahigher pace of 3.1% before two months, the growth of money in circulation easedonce again to 2.6%. Further drop is expected for November, to 2.5%.

PrivateLoans
Thursday, 9:00. More loans representmore economic movement. The pace of fresh loans has ticked up last month andreached 2.7%, after publishing 2.5% beforehand. A climb to 2.8% is expectednow.

(Alltimes are GMT)

EUR / USD Technical Analysis
Euro/dollar traded in a fairly narrow range throughout the week. A breakabove 1.3145 wasn’t complete and the pair fell, closing at 1.3046, nearlyunchanged from last week.

Downtrend channel
A sharp and widening downtrend channel is visible on the graph, and isstronger now subsequent to downtrend support provided support throughout thedownfall. Downtrend resistance begins at the end of October and has beenwidened to accommodate to the changes. Downtrend support was formed afterwardon but is more distinct – it wasn’t violated.

Remain neutral on EUR/USD
The great LTRO operation by the ECB prevented an immediate tragedy for theEuropean banks but didn’t solve the sovereign debt problem. This indirect QEwill likely buy time during the holiday week. In the long run, it’s a loselose situation for the euro.

Trade Aussie Now !

Markets still assess the impact of ECB money as euro area enter holiday mode and U.K. to exit with GDP

2011-12-22T10:34:00.000-08:00

Markets still assess the impact of ECB money as euro area enter holiday mode and U.K. to exit with GDP

EUR / USD forecast for 22-26 August, 2011

2011-08-21T12:44:00.000-07:00

forexcrunch :

Euro/dollar had another volatile week, in which hopes switched to growing fear about the banks. The upcoming week consists of many important surveys. Here is an outlook for the upcoming events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Merkel and Sarkozy didn’t provide the eurobonds that many had wished for. Nevertheless, the euro enjoyed the continued bond buying of Italian and Spanish bonds by the ECB – currently sterilized - meaning no euro printing. This is quite positive for the currency. And then, growing fears about banks (some leveraged close to Lehman), together with bad figures from the US, sent stock markets lower and also weighed on the euro. This action is expected to continue.

Flash PMI: Tuesday – begins in France at 7:00, continues in Germany at 7:30 and ends with the all-European data at 8:00 The last purchasing managers’ indices in Europe were terrible – they all pointed to a significant slowdown. The manufacturing sector is weaker than the services one. It is too close to the critical 50 point mark. Any drop of any of the 6 indices under 50 will weigh on the euro. A score under 50 means economic contraction. 5 indices are expected to remain above 50, while the all-European manufacturing sector index is predicted to dip just below this figure.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. This is one of the most important surveys in Germany, and it tends to be pessimistic. In the past two months, it dipped back to negative numbers, reflecting pessimism. The survey of 350 analysts and investors is set to send the score even lower than last month’s -15.1 points and fall to -24.3 points. The all-European (yet less important) figure is expected to remain around last month’s -7 points.
Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 9:00. This official from Eurostat isn’t much better. According to the latest release, consumers in the euro-zone are slightly more pessimistic, with the score falling to -11. -12 is predicted now.
German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday, 8:00. Contrary to the ZEW survey, this business sentiment indicator tends to be optimistic. But also this one probably feels the slowdown in Germany. It also fell last month unexpectedly from 114.5 to 112.9 points. Another small drop is expected now in this all-important indicator – to 111.4 points.
Industrial New Orders: Wednesday, 9:00. After a few disappointing months, the value of orders in the manufacturing sector jumped by 3.6% last month, helping the euro. A small rise of 0.7% is expected now.
NBB Business Climate: Wednesday, 13:00. Although coming from a small country, this wide Belgian survey is of high importance. In the past three months it has been negative, reflecting worsening conditions. A drop from -2.5 to -3.1 points is expected now.
GfK German Consumer Climate: Friday, 6:00. The last survey of the week relates to consumers. While a drop was recorded also here last month, this indicator is still strong with a score of 5.4 points. A small drop to 5.2 points is likely now.
M3 Money Supply: Friday, 8:00. The pace of growth in money supply is another way to measure inflation, which is easing. The pace recorded last month was 2.1%. A similar number is predicted now.

* All times are GMT.

EUR / USD forecast for 25-29 July, 2011

2011-07-23T12:55:00.000-07:00

FORX CYCLE :
EURUSD formed a cycle bottom at 1.3837 on daily chart. Further rise is still possible next week, and next target would be at 1.4600-1.4700 area. Support is at 1.4250, only break below this level will suggest that a cycle top is being formed, then another fall to test 1.3837 support could be seen.

For long term analysis, EURUSD is in consolidation of uptrend from 1.1876 (2010 low). Range trading between 1.3837 and 1.4939 is expected in next several weeks.

ACTION FOREX :
EUR/USD's rise from 1.3837 extended further to as high as 1.4437 last week but should have formed a temporary top there an retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations but another rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 1.4138 support holds. Focus is now on 1.4577 resistance. Decisive break there will indicate that correction pattern from 1.4939 has completed with three waves down to 1.3837. In such case, the larger up trend is likely resuming for 1.5 and beyond. Break of 1.4138 will in turn suggest that rebound from 1.3837 has completed and will turn bias back to the downside for this support instead.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still trading above medium term trend line support from 1.1875 (now at 1.3793) and thus, rise from there should still be in progress. We'd continue to favor the bullish case that correction from 1.6039 has completed with three waves down to 1.1875 already and above 1.4939 will target 1.5143 resistance first. Break will affirm the bullish case of long term up trend resumption for another high above 1.6039. However, sustained trading below the mentioned trend line support will indicate that there should at least be one more medium term decline, possibly for below 1.1875, before correction from 1.6039 completes.
In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.

Three Simple Steps to Guide You to Become a Forex Trader

2011-05-06T10:41:00.000-07:00

Along with the basic knowledge on how currencies are traded, you must learn these critical terms. They are, "Exchange rate or quote," "pairs," "pips," and "spread."
First let’s take a look at a Forex Quote:

EUR/USD 1.4779 BUY / 1.4775 SELL

Each quote is composed of two main parts, the pair and the rate. Pairs are the currencies traded on the market. E.g., EUR/USD, CAD/JPY, EUR/GBP. Each pair indicates two different currencies.

EUR/USD or the “Pair” of our example means "Dollars for Euro;" EUR/GBP, similarly, equals "Pounds for Euro." The rate is what you can buy or sell the pair for. 1.4779 BUY means, you can buy 1.4779 USDs for each euro, and 1.4775 SELL means you can sell 1.4775 dollars for each euro.

“Pip” represents the basic unit of profit in forex, so it's essential to understand it. A pip is the smallest increment of a pair. For the EUR/USD or any other pair it's 1/10,000th or the fourth decimal place. The yen is an exception, where the pip is 1/100th. Or the second decimal place.

If you noticed that the BUY/SELL rate wasn't equal, which is called the "spread." All forex markets have a spread of some kind, and habitually a broker will widen them slightly to make profits. This is the same as a stock broker charging per-trade. So in order to be beneficial, you will need to recover the spread.

Practice is one of the most important things in Forex trading. Most Forex Brokers offer practice accounts with fake deposit. Set one up, and play around and watch your funds disappear. After you have played around for a few days, open another practice account, but this time build up or use a precise trading strategy. Choose a method and stick with it. You may or may not make money this time as well, but you will begin to have a fuller understanding of the internal workings of the market. After several weeks, try a different strategy and get fluent at two or three strategies.

The most beginning traders lose their money by starting their account with all the money they have. After you have trained for some months, take the strategy you be familiar with best and some money you can afford to lose. It is definitely best to select a broker based on a comparison list or based on trustworthy reviews. Open a micro account, begin really small, use a disciplined method, and start trading. Know your own psychology and refuse to accept the persuasion to be driven by greed or fear.

The most Popular Forex Trading Strategy – Trend Following.

2011-04-30T10:53:00.000-07:00

Trend following is maybe the most popular long-term strategy in all monetary markets. It is exceptionally effective and beneficial when the conditions are favorable, is quite uncomplicated in its methodology, and there are many persons who have exercised this strategy to victory and riches. We must note that the technical part of trend following is in fact pretty easy, but also that it requires discipline, correct money management, and patience. Trend following strategy is not short-term, and persistence and determination are as essential as correct analysis as an outcome.

Trends are produced by powerful underlying financial factors which may not be all that understandable to those who are unfamiliar with fundamental analysis. But the simple patterns formed by the price action in reaction to the economic events can often be identified through methods that are simple to learn and apply. Thus, the retail trader has as much possibility of success as skilled analyst if he can control his emotions and perform reasonably.

To apply this strategy we should first be aware of the existence of a trend. Without identifying a trend we would be gambling, and that’s not the idea of trading FX. Both fundamental and technical analysis can be engaged for identifying a trend, and both of them have their advantages and disadvantages. It is a good idea to use a mixture of them for deciding on the trend’s nature, and deciding on our entry and exit points.
To use trend following method, you must first decide whether you want to employ technical or fundamental analysis for your method, or a mixture of both.

The fundamental analysis can supply you with information which can forecast the strength and length of a trend, while technical analysis can show you how it builds up. It is likely to base your strategy on one of these to the exclusion of the other, and it is still possible to turn a profit if you are lucky enough, but we have to reduce the role of luck to as slight as possible. Fundamental analysis is more trustworthy than technical analysis in defining a trend that has long term potential, but without technical analysis it would be very difficult to choose at what time or how to trade. Technical analysis can propose the start of a trend, but it’s unlikely to tell much about the length or strength of the same. Thus, you may use both technical and fundamental methods for your trend following strategy, with fundamental factors removing the false signals of technical analysis, and technical tools provide you with a time-price frame for deciding on access points.There are a lot of technical tools that can signal the existence of a trend, but there are an equal number of false signals generated by them. There are only three types of trends that can be present at any time: flat, up or down, and it is likely to consider of trends between any two points on a price chart. Simply take two casual points on a price chart, draw a moving average on it and the pattern that comes up can be analyzed as a trend. Thus it is always essential to have at least some basic understanding of the financial factors that can generate trends, before deciding on the accuracy of a chart pattern. You can do that by familiarizing yourself with the big picture; understand what drives market contributors; be aware of the stage of the trade cycle.

A trend can be formed when there is some motivating certainty behind the price action which allows the trader to easily identify it visually. The trend that we search to trade is dissimilar from random variations, range patterns and comparable price movements in that the price itself, in the absence of any technical indicator, can still be recognized as showing a trend. Consecutive highs and lows should represent a rising or falling pattern in an uptrend or downtrend respectively, with relatively few irregularities. But such a case is frequently a rarity, and the trader will have to back his technical patterns with assurance that may only be gained through fundamental analysis.

Even though a trend can be identified without any technical tools, we still need technical tools to trade it, and time it. The main principle of a trend following strategy is, recognize the trend, identify counter-trend moves, and use them to enter a trade in the direction of the trend. Market timing in the background of a trend, with the intention of picking the counter-trend extremes, and using them to enter a trade, is required and beneficial. Also remember market timing never works when one is trying to expect reversal points on only a technical basis. The basement of all trading is to utilize short-term irrational behaviors of the market in order to enter into long-term positions in positive alignment with basics.

A trend follower should maintain his position for as long as the fundamental reasons that support the trend are leading. A trader can use technical patterns to time his exit point when he cannot recognize those reasons, or if he doesn’t trust for some unfathomable reason, that they are functional. Even if the trader is attentive to the fundamental reasons, and is able to calculate them correctly, technical analysis can provide him with a very useful early advice system. If the price action is suggesting powerfully that there’s some fault in the trader’s fundamental point of view, he can use the technical signals as an occasion to have another look at his fundamental picture.

The best tools for trend following are produced by moving averages with simple price charts. Bar charts, candlesticks and many others can be similarly useful if engaged with moving averages. For instance, between October, 2007 and May 2008, the price action of USD/SGD always stayed below the 100-day moving average. And when the pattern collapsed, in June 2008, the trend had also broken down, and the price went on to crack the 200-day average, and a medium-term rising trend was formed. It is also possible to use changing average crossovers, and countless other methods, but any method you decide to use, you must ensure that you do not obscure the main feature of your strategy, which is trend following.

If you are a weekly or daily basis trader, the 100-day MA will most likely be able to capture the majority of the main trends for you. Anything with a longer time frame is likely to be insignificant because of too much data discarded, and a shorter time frame that is way below the 100-day period may be too responsive to price action. But as usual, one can use other timeframes below 100, given that he doesn’t mess his monitor with lots of indicators, charts and tools.

When trend following, placements of stop-losses and take profit orders depend on the term and environment of your method. A stop-loss order can be placed a short distance above or below the trend line, whether it is presented by the moving average, or a simple line drawn on the chart. And the trend follower should not recognize his profits until he has a very good explanation to do so. The principle of this strategy is to focus on underlying price dynamics by stripping out instability and short term movements, and there is little reason to realize profits in response to variation which are irrelevant to the core action of the trend. So the conclusion is to go as far as the trend goes and then you can take your profits. You can use the market analysis to decide how far a trend goes, but it’s far better to discover the fundamental reasons behind a trend, and then to exit the trade once those causes are no longer sustainable.

2011-04-21T20:32:00.000-07:00

As a beginner, you can jump start your Forex trading (Global Currency Exchange or FX Trading) by following three basic guidelines.

1. Select a trusted trading broker who can provide you with a dependable trading platform.

Because of there are thousands of them, it is not easy to select a good Forex broker. The best trading brokers out there should have qualities like well established and also allows maximum leverage. My picks are Forex.com, MIG or Interbank Fx. At forex.com, you can enjoy lower investment entries for the live account for as low as 250 USDs. Further more, forex.com offers a lot of different trading platforms and tools like as Forex Trader, Wireless Trading or Meta Trader. Amongst these platforms, I select to use Metatrader 4, because it is very much user friendly and has a constant connection.

2. Open your Forex Trading demo account to start your trading, before you enter to the real game.

Demo accounts allow users to use fake currency to practice trading with live data. This is so much important to a beginner to Forex trading so that they can perform trading without losing (and gaining :-) ) real money. As a beginner in online Global Currency Exchange, one can start a demo account with leverage 1:200. For those who don’t know what leverage is, it’s a percentage amount of money that you can borrow from the Forex broker. Leverage of 1:200 means that you can borrow 200 USDs from the broker for every single dollar you deposit. Your demo account should be parallel to your potential live account, so start to use as low as 250 USDs to begin your demo trading.

3. Learn the basics of Forex.

It is not like a walk in the park for a beginner to be familiar with how to trade. You need to do some online researches on Foreign Currency Exchange by searching on any search engine you use, or reading some books or e-books on FX trading and collect some knowledge about basic analysis and technical analysis. There are a lot of articles and information sites on this.

Anyway, a good FX trading course can speed up your learning curve, and a qualified trainer would be able to guide you towards Forex trading mastery.

Six Forex Tips to make you more money and avoid failure.

2011-04-02T13:17:00.000-07:00

The Forex market is parallel to the stock market; the difference is, instead of trading stocks one trade universal currencies. It's a gigantic market and there is a lot of money to be made if you know how to do it productively. Regrettably it is very tough to trade Forex without assistance. Greater part of online marketers does not have the interests of new aspirant traders at compassion. They are only concerned in advertising you their trading android or method and they always describe trading as an easy, get-rich-overnight plan or as some "secrets" to be learned from those who hide trading secrets. These six Forex tips will get You extra Trading Pips, into your account in a short time.

Want to be familiar with, the best kept trading Secrets in order to make a lot of money.

The reality about trading is that there are no trading secrets and ....... (Please click read more) ........ no easy paths to speedy success in trading markets. Watch out of anyone who tries to tell you trading rubbish, that trading Forex is easy. Like everything else, trading Forex to make money is achievable, but only to those who are ready to learn the basics, and be patient.

Successful trader will be armed with these three weapons, financial leverage, market performance and trader psychology.

One of the major obstacles to success in trading markets is lack of familiarity and understanding of the procedure of trading. The procedure of trading, includes understanding financial leverage, market performance and trader psychology. Understanding the procedure of trading can be a boring job, but anyone who is looking forward to learn from a adviser can do it.

Give yourself a trading frame, never put all the eggs in a single case, and always trade with keeping the limit in your mind.

A good platform on the road to trading accomplishment, occupy the use of learning about different trading tools, different markets and different trading strategies. Because I will exercise more concern and imagine about and plan for what could happen if a trade turns against me. There will be some trades indeed turn against you and that you need to have the funds to trade another day, so you shouldn’t risk losing all the money on a single trade.

Be at calm with yourself and accept the truth that, only the markets are accurate.

Don't be an amateur trader, by not accepting the fact that losing trades is part of trading, and it happens to even the most successful traders in the world. Expert traders are happy to attract a small trading loss, as opposed to risking trading with no defensive stops and seeing a small loser turn into a large loser, hoping that the market will turn around so that they can be confirm right.

Never trade with your Ego, after every 3 consecutive losing trades, go away from your trader platform.

Be alert with whatever you are doing, sometimes the decisions traders make to avoid losses of their trading money are not mindful, well thought out decisions for those wanting to be winning traders in the long run.

The easiest way to decide if a trader does not have much trading or markets experience is, when he claims that he think he knows that the market is going to go up or down.

What can be even worse is when a forex trader thinks they know what is going to happen in the market, and then makes a trade that turns out to be a success. Very soon, that type of psychological reinforcement of success by luck trading characteristic only sets up the trader for a larger disappointment at some point in the time to come.

New to FOREX TRADING ? - Avoid these 6 mistakes

2011-03-18T06:40:00.000-07:00

While searching for information about mistakes made by new forex traders, I've come up with these are the most common ones:

Not having enough funds

Yes, it hurts, but it is the most common issue. You got to have a reasonable trading capital. If your account is too small, you might find it difficult to pull the trigger on a trade, because you are too scared of losing what little capital you have. It's essential to have enough capital in the account so you have the ability to survive a chain of losses, because they can and do happen. You got to accept that losing trades happen to each and everyone, and you should not be in a situation where some losses can wipe out the total trading capital you do have.

Very High expectations

Another common mistake of new traders is having unrealistic expectations of what is going to happen. Most of us ....... (Please click Read more) ........ begin thinking of sitting on a sofa, opening our laptop, having a few keys pressed and some clicking will make a thousand dollars within a day. Just one or two trades will show you how unlikely that is.

You got to think this as a real business. If you invest 1,000 - 2,000 dollars in a bakery (or any other business) Will you be profiting 500 dollars per day? It takes something more than that, plus hard, consistent work and dedication. Trading forex is not much different.

It will take time to grow your balance up, enabling you to trade higher amounts, and make higher profits. With patience along with some common sense, you will be able to reach where your profits truly matter.

Not treating forex trading as a real business.

Forex trading is a business. So treat it like one. Most doctors didn’t just , but most Forex traders appears to be think they will be able to “pick it up” along the way. You are going to compete against some of the forex trading masters in the world. Of cause you will be able to come out ahead, but you need to know what you are doing, before you try doing it!

Be educated, follow demo accounts for a reasonable period, they can get you the experience needed to compete with the larger companies around the world. Of cause You have some advantages that they don’t, like appear and disappear of the market with ease for example. You can learn how to use your experience to make money steadily, but it isn't going to happen overnight.

Over-leveraging

This is quite similar to having an underfunded account. But there are still a number of traders that insist on using all of the leverage they can. The lure of large gains is simply too much for them to ignore, but they don’t look at the other side of the coin, to think about the losses are also on the cards.

Being overconfident

having confidence of what you are doing is good, but one mustn't go too far. Your last trade made a large amount doesn't mean you are going to earn profits on each and every trade you make. Some traders will look for a chain of profits as a signal to start trading with large positions.

This can be very dangerous. Single 'large' trade that goes the other way can level several of your normal profits. A loss can come at any time, and successful traders will actually trades like it is likely.

Trading without a PLAN ?

A successful forex trader is backed up by a trading plan. You cannot just trade some and expect to make good decisions. A trading system as part of your plan can consist of chains of trades towards becoming profitable. You need to learn what and when to do in different market conditions. A good trading plan will get you where you want.

Forex - Risk ?

2009-12-13T02:14:00.000-08:00

Risk is the path to the success. Nothing can be gained with out losing anything. This is the kind of opportunity that is also offered by the Forex market as well as any other market. Simply we earn profit by buying at lower rate and selling at higher rate. The market is open 24 hours a day 365 days a year, and operational world wide, making it the most liquid and volatile market. However the risk can be minimized through Forex tips. These tips are offered by various broking houses. The Forex tips are useful in multiplying our money and reducing the chances of losing them.

Forex trading is often considered to be difficult and involves higher risk factor however with the correct guidance and Forex tips a road to success can be built. The Forex tips are very useful ........ (Please click Read more) ....... for the novice traders. To begin with one should decide on a methodology and strategy to follow. If we decide to buy the share of a particular company and follow the instinct of the owner we are putting our hard earned money at risk. Hence we should adapt a methodology which can be developed through various Forex tips available online or through broking house.

If a trader does not have proper guidance and tips available, he can begin with opening a dummy account offered by several website. They are virtual Forex websites. The websites also provide the user with dummy money as well. These replica websites enables us to practice and follow market trends. We should also learn about the different Forex charts representing the fluctuation of the currencies. Charts help you to take the decision of buying and selling. For example to begin with we should learn about the daily Forex chart which provide us the details of the trend of the Forex market for the period of 24 hours, hence help in taking decision about the trading of next 24 hours. In a similar fashion hourly and 15 minutes charts are also available to get us closer to the action.

Few investors follow the technical analysis of the market in trading. Technical analysis is typically defined by the price chain of the currency i.e. the trend of the value of the currency over the period of time which is influenced by various market factors. Here we are making an assumption that each and every kind of factors affecting the value has been already considered and the history will repeat itself. Hence the trader is trying to be smart and safe by evaluating past trends, Forex tips and making them the basis of its future trading decision. One can also base their decision on the study of different economic and political situation of the country; whose currency is being traded.

Hence we saw that the Forex trading can be made easy with the help of different kinds of methodology and Forex tips available at our disposal through internet.

The potential to make money on the Forex market

2009-12-04T04:54:00.001-08:00

The potential to make money on the Forex market does not need further advertising. Just by worth of the market itself, comprising of a turnover of more than 5 trillion dollars a day should give you a pretty good picture just how big the potential pie is and how much opportunity there is out there for you to make some really good money. But understanding the market is quite difficult and here in lies the caveat when one is considering to place their interests in the paper trade.

More than 90% of the new investor movements into the market are not able to sustain their presence and soon lose their initial margins - and often do not come back. You need to be part of that 10% that manage to fight through the volatile market, make the right money making decisions and get the best Forex picks. One of the best money making tips most Forex investors will tell you is that you need to pick a currency pair that you are comfortable with and do not make the mistake of choosing some exotic currencies from countries where you have no idea about the market conditions or the rules of financial trading that rule them.

You might just be blind-sided by some archaic banking rules that circle some of these exotic currencies, so choose the popular currencies that are being traded and choose a pair that you know you can get comfortable with and you can study over time. Also, the next thing you need to know about is how to combine technical and fundamental analysis together to be effective in your trading. Technical analysis is very technical, there is a whole host of charts, bars, diagrams, candlesticks diagrams and jargon you need to be familiar with; but this is important. Fundamental analysis shows you where the market might be going based on external information like political situations and economic weather in the global market, so you need to combine three things. Study where the market has been, use technical analysis to see what is going on in the market and fundamental analysis to ascertain where it might be headed in the near future.

Once you have these three things in check, you will be able to get yourself on the right track and make the right decisions to put you in the zone of profitable pips. Last but not least, you need to have a grasp of technical terms and jargon like pivot points, pips (as mentioned), price feeds and have a good Forex system that can crunch these numbers in real time and present you with enough information to make wise decisions. These are some of the money-making tips you can follow in the Forex market to make the best Forex picks for yourself. Having the right combination of information can definitely lead you places and will see your investment portfolio grow like you have never seen it grow before this article. Follow these tips, and you'll soon be making money with the best Forex picks on your own.

Click Here to claim your Free Forex "Basic Momentum Analysis" report today! Christopher Lee helps thousands of traders learn the proper way to trade currency.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Christopher_M_Lee

FOREX MARKET is.....

2009-09-14T23:59:00.000-07:00

FOREX MARKET is.....

Forex trading is a profitable market, but still 95% traders lose their way. How to make money from FX is quite an easy part, but the use of the process to learn forex market is more difficult. Forex education is a help for all those who are willing to earn some extra cash in forex trading. Therefore it is very important for them to learn the ways and methods of forex trading before getting into it. Even if someone is well experienced in trading, there is always something to learn.

The forex market is absolutely not a game for a new comer to this field and they need to improve their skills before getting really into it. The fact is that many traders who make money online keep losing money in the forex market and very few people are earning high profits annually. There are two main reasons for this major difference, and they are, forex trading skills and the trading system being used.

Forex trading gives an option to the beginners to succeed financially. To learn Forex market and list Forex trading into your financial plans is a must. When an investor implements the right trading skills, one can earn profits without limits. There are a lot of trading systems that provide you with the facility of making online income. But what is required is to identify and understand that which one will suit the best to your requirement.

1. Know the values of the currencies
2. Be informed about the trend ending time
3. of current economy
4. Use of long term trading strategies

To succeed in currency trading, one needs to learn the right forex trading strategy which can be possible if the traders follow new tips and to move ahead and reach huge profits.